INTERVENING FACTORS:
INTERVENING FACTOR: Turkey/Erdogan:
Turkey is another major player in the Middle Eastern region and the world. Turkey was born on the Anatolian Eurasian lands on the ruins of the Eastern Roman empire with the coming of the East Asian Turkic tribes. Initially, they took over the reigns of most of the Islamic Empire with the rise of the Ottoman Empire; and then with Ataturk came the birth of the modern Turkish State in its stead.
From the start, given its history and location, Turkey had one foot in the Middle East and one foot in Europe. The Modern Turkish State birthed by Ataturk had the Military on top to ensure the stability and existence of the secular Turkish Republic.
With the rise of Globalization, Turkey sought to go to the West. It became a part of Nato and hoped for entry to the EU. However, that entry was not forthcoming. As Erdogan rose to take control of the Turkish Republic, he sought a return to Turkey’s Religious and Middle Eastern Roots.
This re-entry would mean that it would be entering into the conflict between Deep State Outposts (Saudi, Israel, etc.) vs. the Resistance. This would put Turkey in an interesting position.
As a secular state, it was, by definition, against the religious Iranian state. As a Sunni majority state, the more religious it would become, then it would theoretically be even more at odds with Iran’s Shiite state.
On the other hand, by entering into the Middle East, especially with dreams of Ottomon glory; then Turkey would be stepping on Saudi Arabia’s toes. Erdogan, himself, appears to be somewhat sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood movement which is despised by Saudi Arabia. This would be even more reason for conflict between Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
A more aware, Middle Eastern oriented and Religious Turkey would create conflict with Israel with which it previously had good relations.
Turkey’s position brings it very close to Qatar.
Qatar is a Persian Gulf Arab country which has decent relations with Iran.
Iran also has good relations with the Government of Gaza which is also ideologically close to Turkey.
Iran also stood by Erdogan during the Coup when others turned on him.
As a result, Turkey has good but possibly competitive relations with Iran.
This Turkish turn has caused its relationship with Saudi and Israel to become become turbulent.
The relationship with Saudi/Israel is also influenced by Turkey’s relationship with the US and Russia.
During its Pro-Western period, Turkey had created very close relations with the United States. As a NATO ally, it became a bulwark against Russia. It also became a bridge for the West into the Muslim Middle East. It also provides the United States an important base at Incirlik.
As it has gone towards the East, it has vastly improved relations with Russia. This led to a conflict wherein Turkey wanted S-400 missile defense from Russia and F35 Fighter Jets from the US.
The United States stated that it would back down from allowing Turkey to have the F35’s if it went ahead and purchased the S-400’s. Turkey purchased the S-400 anyway.
INTERVENING FACTOR: Kurds:
Who are the Kurds?
Kurds are Iranian Mountain Nomads who have settled in the mountainous areas ranging from Iran to Iraq, Syria, the Caucuses, and Turkey.
Who do the Kurds think they are?
They believe that they are a distinct ethnic group with descent from the Medes and a right to their own country.
Who is right?
- Medes are Iranians. This is a fact. In fact, Medes are one of the largest Aryan groups to migrate from the Caucasus to the Iranian Plateau.
- Iranians are not exclusively Persian, but are made up of all of the Aryan groups that came (hence the name “Iran”) to the Plateau mixed with groups that were there before and others that came after.
- In fact, the Medes not only have a common ancestry with the Persians (i.e. Medes and Persians were one people who settled in different geographical locations in the North and South of the Western Plateau, etc.); but they were united by Cyrus (whose grandfather was king of the Medes) in order to create Iran.
- As such, they were not only basically the same to start with; but they also united and did away with any differences that may have existed.
- Kurd’s Iranian identity is confirmed by all of the critical factors:
- Kurds speak an Iranian language. The language fits in comfortably and snugly in the Iranian spectrum with Persian/Lor/Kurdish. In fact, some Kurdish dialects may be farther away from each other on the Spectrum than they are from Lor or Farsi.
- Kurds are religiously similar to their fellow Iranians: Mostly Muslim. Also, some practice the strictly Iranian/Aryan religion of Zoroastrianism or other closely related religions.
- Kurds celebrate Iranian holidays and festivals including Norouz/Persian New Year
- Share the same folklore/culture/etc.
- The Kurdish Flag is based on the old Imperial Iranian flag without the lion, and bears a significant resemblance to the flag of other Iranian peoples (Iran, Tajikistan, etc.)
Kurds are Iranians who have led a Nomadic life in the mountains. If anything, they may have maintained a purer Iranian lifestyle than Iranians on lower elevated lands, who have had to come into more contact with other populations. These geographic differences have created the differences that now exist.
Finally, no country known as Kurdistan has ever existed.
Arabs and Turks, who dominate, many of the countries were the Kurds live, view the Kurds as Iranian origin people living in their lands. For this reason, they simply have not historically liked them.
The problem for the Kurds is their obsession with this modern myth of the separate Kurdish people. By doing this, they have created a division between themselves and their fellow people in Iran.
Once you start dividing yourself, it is hard to stop. As such, Kurdish groups everywhere have created divisions amongst themselves.
In summary, the Kurds hold onto an ideology which is:
- Clearly and Easily Disproven
- Makes an enemy of the predominate (Arabs/Turks) groups in their countries
- Promotes taking land and resources from their countrymen
- All the while, creating divisions within their own people either categorized as Iranian or Kurdish
This ideology is harmful for the entire region, but no one has suffered as much as a result of it but the Kurds themselves.
While predictably Kurds in Iran, especially the Shiite, enjoy the best conditions among Kurdish groups; all countries struggle to trust the Kurds given this ideology. All of the countries must worry about Kurds taking land and resources in order to re-create a country which never existed. This distrust only serves to limits the Kurds prospects.
For better or worse, Kurds already have a country and it is called Iran; but by inexplicably turning on Iranians and other Kurds. They are viewed as pariahs by other Middle Easterners. Pariahs without any allies.
As could be expected, this has led to a rough existence for the Kurds (as they say “no friend but the mountains”). Of course, Iranians who love Kurdish culture as a part of their own; have assisted the Kurds on multiple occasions to ensure their survival. However, the “Kurdish” ideology has stopped this alliance from growing in the manner in which it should. This lack of growth in the alliance is to their mutual detriment.
INTERVENING FACTOR: Idlib Battle:
As the Syrian Battlefield has trudged along, the main battleground has shifted to the East of the Euphrates and Northern Syria in general.
This has meant that the Russian/Iranian/Syrian battle against Jihadists/Deep Statists has now come into contact with the Turkish Border and Kurdish populations.
The Turkish Republic was born on the belief of a strong Turkish culture, language, and central government. The Kurdish ideology clashes heavily with the belief of a strong “Turkish” Turkey.
Some Kurds in Turkey have assimilated, but many others have resisted. Some groups, with the PKK chief among them, have taken to terrorist acts and armed resistance for their goal of both furthering the Kurdish Ideology as well as other goals (Communism in the case of the PKK).
On the other hand, the Deep State only sees two options for all nations:
Option A: Total control over states/territories or
Option B: Weak, broke governments;
For the Deep State, the Kurds are a great tool. Given the Kurdish Ideology, those Kurds beholden to this mythological ideology, will do anything in exchange for the promise of a country or autonomy. Any Kurdish nation or autonomous region would be under the total control of and beholden to the Deep State. On the other hand, if the Kurds do not get full autonomy or a state, then they will sow chaos in their home countries.
In the case of Syria, the Deep State was able to assist the Kurds in entrenching themselves in the East of the Euphrates thus weakening Syria. It should be noted that the Kurds had no real reason to be upset with the Syrian state especially since it had accepted many of them as refugees. The fact that they would still be willing to weaken Syria shows the danger of the Kurdish Ideology.
Kurds were promised autonomy and an eventual Kurdistan in exchange for helping the Deep State weaken and ultimately fracture Syria.
This led to the genesis of the so called “Syrian Defense Forces” and a Kurdish controlled region of Syria which would become a bastion of Deep State control and antics. Most of these Kurds were YPG Kurds who were almost indistinguishable from the PKK Kurds attacking the Turkish state. Turkey sees the PKK as a terrorist organization, and by extension the prosperity of these terrorist groups was unacceptable for Turkey.
However, the United States’s Base in Incirlik and its relationship with Turkey was also valuable for the Deep State. The United States found itself stuck between two allies. The US’s double policy in Syria led to Turkey further floating towards Russia.
Finally, President Trump in a moment of clarity decided to do what he had promised to do in his campaign and what he had tried to do a year earlier. Get out of Syria.
After speaking with Erdogan, Trump once again committed to getting America out of the unnecessary (except for the Deep State’s purposes) quagmire in Syria.
Of course, Lady Lindsey, Rubio, Bibi, MBS, and all of the Deep State’s big guns came after Trump hard again. As always, Trump was bound to back down and give in.
In the meanwhile, US troops started to leave many of their bases. Turkey swooped in and made short work of the Kurds.
Of course, the Kurds, who despite being sacrificed time and time again by the US, were shocked and swore that they had learned a valuable lesson.
Syria’s government also moved in and re-established their ties with the Kurds. The Syrian government and the Kurds had more or less been on the same side. It was only the US’s promise for ever increasing autonomy and independence that had led the Kurds to turn against their own national government.
Turkey was also playing a double game. In addition to fighting the PKK allies in Syria, Turkey was supporting various Islamist groups.
As the Kurds fell back, the Turks found themselves in control of vast areas along their border in Syria.
The Syrian Army and its allies continued to make advances and soon only the area East of the Euphrates controlled by the SDF, North and Eastern areas controlled by Turkey, and the Golan remained.
With the Kurds falling back into a positive relationship with their National Government, the stage was set for the Indigenous Syrian Forces and their allies (SAA, SDF, Iran, Russia, Lebanon) vs. Turkey and Its Jihadist allies.
However, as always, Trump relented and was forced back into the game by the Deep State. This turn was very fortuitous for Erdogan.
Trump was forced to keep Al Tanaf, given its importance to the Deep State, and Trump went back to the Eastern regions to take control of Syrian oil.
Kurds were once again promised portions of the Syrian People’s oil wealth and more autonomy, and once again they sold out their compatriots for promises of benefits that they had no right receiving.
This broke the remaining Syrian battlefield outside of the Golan into three separate theaters with different alliances playing out.
- Eastern Euphrates:
- US vs. Russia
- US vs. SAA
- US vs. Iran
- SDF assisting the US but avoiding full on conflict with the SAA and Russians
- SDF vs. Turkey
- US avoiding conflict with Turkey
- IDLIB
- Turkey vs. SAA – Major Conflict
- Turkey vs. Russia – Medium Conflict
- Turkey vs. Iran – Minor Conflict
- SDF providing some assistance to anti-Turkish forces
- US/Israel/Saudis providing some assistance or at least support for Turkey
- Northern East (Afrin Region)
- Turkey vs. SDF – Major Conflict
- Turkey vs. SAA and Allies
Each one of these theaters has its own complex cauldron of factors and different actors with differing objectives.
With the Astana Process and other diplomatic processes; Russia had been able to bring Turkey and Iran together to minimize conflict.
Iran has had cordial relations with Turkey, and due to the fact that it had nothing to gain by having conflict with Turkey, it sought to work with Turkey.
After the initial US pullout, a diplomatic solution seemed close, and Turkey was in good position to gain a great deal from any agreement. Also, its interests in Syria including with the Kurdish terrorist issue would have been protected.
The Kurds also were close to coming to an agreement which would return Syrian Sovereignty over the Eastern Euphrates of Syria; and the Kurds would have come out in a good position in any New Syria.
The end had seemed near; but with the US coming back, any chance of ending the conflict East of the Euphrates was once again pulled off the table.
While Syria/Russia/Iran were motivated to ensure a great deal for Turkey in any settlement; what the Turks wanted was in no way acceptable nor workable. Turkey demanded Syrian Soil.
Likewise, Turkey had given in to greed which as always opened the door for Deep State interference.
A return to conflict was now certain in Syria.
- Idlib
As the SAA established sovereignty over parts of Syria, in order to lessen conflict and save lives and resources, it agreed to send the Jihadists to Idlib province which had been the province most under their control. Of course, this only guaranteed one final, large conflict as Syria would have to establish sovereignty over all its lands.
Having a Jihadist controlled province was in no way acceptable for Syria’s security.
For Turkey, the Jihadists provided an opportunity to expand their influence and their goals of a neo-Ottomon empire.
These Jihadists were useful for Turkey in their efforts to gain and maintain control over Libya, which was another country that had been left in ruins by the Deep State. This meant that Idlib was a factory to manufacture a steady stream of Jihadist tools for Turkey.
INTERVENING FACTOR: Coronavirus/COVID-19:
The ultimate wildcard thrown in 2020 was a disease that started in China in late 2019. The virus has challenged the status quo for the whole world.
The disease has killed 100’s of thousands and shut the world’s economy down. In addition, to the medical questions; there are lots of questions that need to be answered:
- Which country will be hit hardest?
- Which country will be able to have the smoothest recovery?
- How will it affect the oil industry?
- How will the economy in general survive?
- How will the US election be affected?
- What will be the impact on protest movements?
- Will it change the behavior of any states involved in this Deep State war?
INTERVENING FACTOR: South American Theater Of Conflict:
As a part of its global domination, the Deep State has resurrected the Monroe Doctrine. The Deep Statists have tried to keep 100% control over the South American continent and have sought to snuff out the slightest of dissent.
As seen in the Middle East, the theaters for conflict were often started by the Deep Statists looking to create 100% compliant states.
If they were not able to install their pliable governments shortly, formerly stabile nations became battlegrounds for the deep state.
For the Deep State, this has been a mixed benefit.
- The Deep State can use unstable states to have at least some influence and maybe even pursue a break up of the nation. In short, a weak, non-functioning state is preferable to a strong resistant nation or even an intact mildly resistant nation.
- The Deep State loves war as does its closely related Military Industrial Complex which allows it to make money and maybe even take resources from the aggrieved nation.
However as these flashpoints have continued:
- The absurdity of the Deep State’s propaganda and its naked ambition has been increasingly de-masked and exposed to the blistering heat of sunlight
- Its forces have become stuck in struggles with limited strategic accomplishments and this has led to a strain on suddenly limited resources.
The Central Figure in the South American theater is Venezuela:
By late May of 2020, Deep State Aggression against Venezuela had opened up a window for Iran to strike back at the United States and for Venezuela to become a full-fledged and active member of the Resistance.
Under Pompeo’s Puppet, Trump, the Deep State had taken an overly inhumane scorched earth policy of extreme action after extreme action to destroy nations and severely suffocate the populations so that they would take to the streets. Nothing was off the table, out of bounds, or too sinister; to them, Trump provided the perfect naïve pliable puppet and they had to maximize their time with him at the helm.
Their end goal, as always, was the same: Kneel or Be Killed. Dependence or Death.
In the Northern Region of South America, years of sanctions and the sabotage of the Obama détente combined with the death of Fidel Castro had left a defiant yet limited Cuba. The Vicious Military Coup in Bolivia had destabilized another ally of Venezuela.
By weakening Venezuela’s allies in the region, the Deep State started shredding Venezuela with its claws while sharpening its fangs in preparation for the fateful, fatal strike. At the end, Venezuela, which at one point, was a leading producer of oil was decimated to the point of being unable to produce enough oil for its own population.
Venezuela pleaded for help from a world which proved to be feckless. Russia and China brought some assistance but they were limited in what they could do given their own geopolitical situation visa vie the United States.
Venezuela then reached out across the globe to Iran. In 2008, when Iran needed help, Venezuela had provided assistance. Iran had proclaimed that it was ready to provide assistance to Oppressed Nations anywhere in the world. Would Iran provide assistance to Venezuela? After all, Iran was still recovering from the traumatic, cowardly murder of its National Hero and it was under extreme and inhumane sanctions itself.
This was an opportunity for Iran to assist a fellow resistant nation and to further its influence in the Western Hemisphere, however there would be high costs to consider with such a move.
By taking such extreme sanctions and by engaging in the murder of Soleimani, the Deep State had in essence provided both the motivation and the lowering of any negative cost for Iran. In Iran’s eyes, it had to strike back any chance it got; and it was already paying such a high price that any prospective cost was worth it.
Against US threats of piracy and further punishment, Iran sent ships with oil, food and other assistance to Venezuela. Despite all odds, the ships made it to Venezuela. Moreover, Iran has opened up a massive SuperMarket known as Megasis.
INTERVENING FACTOR: Terror List
Given the prevalence and deeply entrenched nature of the Deep State, everything must be questioned and looked into.
As an example, the terror list.
The United States has a terror list where terrorist groups are listed as are “sponsors of terrorist”. Once put on this list, the United States can take economic or even military actions against these groups.
As Trump proved with the designation of Iranian military (IRGC) and of Antifa; these designations are highly political and subjective.
They are also another end round to the Declaration of War.
As a result, this list is a highly potent tool for Deep Statists. This makes it necessary for the system of designation to be neutral and foolproof. Also, there is a dire need for a better and truly objective definition of Terrorism.
Looking deeper into this issue, it can be foreseen that even a properly planned system of designation and an objective definition of terrorism could also be possibly abused.
As such, if an objective and non-exploitable system cannot be found; it is preferable to default to the brilliance of the United States Constitution.
The only constitutionally approved path is a debated, congressionally approved Declaration of War.
The argument against this is that a declaration of war is not nimble or quick enough to deal with terrorist threats. It is believed that we cannot be expected to declare war simply due to their being terrorist attacks against us.
There is some validity to this argument. In the long term, however, there is no reason why the Constitutional method could not work out.
If a terrorist attack is a singular strike then it would be a police action. If the attack is from an organization that intends to carry out warfare against the country then why not declare war on that organization? Who would be against this?
As an example, after 9/11, instead of simply mentioning Al Qaeda as a terrorist group and vaguely engaging in the “War on Terror”; the United States could have declared war on Al Qaeda. In fact, Al Qaeda had already declared war on the United States.
Instead of the vague, overly broad, and ambiguous war on terror; a War against Al Qaeda would have been a lot more limited and tailored. A war effort that was strictly tailored towards Al Qaeda would have avoided the monstrous disaster of Iraq and would have wiped Al Qaeda out thus not enabling its spinoffs like ISIS.
Again, people will argue that this is not quick enough to deal with terrorism and that it would need to be debated in Congress.
While efficient and quick responses are important for National Security, this should not be used as an excuse to not do what is right.
Who in Congress would have been against Declaring War against Al Qaeda?
This argument is another red herring by the Deep Statists to once again avoid true, informed debate.
The terror list also provides them another opportunity to push their philosophy and execute their policies in darkness thus avoiding the bright spotlight that a debate for war would bring.
As an example, the Deep State could use a vague “War Against Terror” to then have their assets in the government put their enemies quietly on the Terror List. At this point, they would be able to undertake strikes and other measures against their enemies.
All the while the American public would not have any word, say or idea.
